Octopus Paul has added an additional element of excitement to the football mania that the world cup has unleashed. Even though I am not such an enthusiast of football, I still ask how Paul’s prediction has fared. It has added another topic of conversation, another exciting piece of trivia.
Do I believe that there is something divine or mystical about Paul? No, I don’t. Is there anything special about Paul? Yes he is one lucky fellow who has managed to get four out of six predictions in the Euro cup 2008. In this world cup the eight out of eight correct he has managed had a probability of success of 1/ 256. Now we have parrot Mani and the Indian Louse and many more in this game.
Not as lucky as the guy who gets a first price in lottery with few million contestants or even the boy who tops in IIT entrance exams with a million aspirants.
If he was a human being, there would have been books written by him and or on him about his theories on how to predict successful football teams.
He would be a bigger hit if he could repeat his luck in capital market. In fact we often see some lucky players who have run up such lucky streaks for some time and many of them have surely written their books.
This is true of most of what happens in our life. The number of variables that affect most of the outcomes, (whether it is in picking a stock, or in diagnosing an ailment or in choosing a job option) in long term or short term is way too large and complex for anyone to master.
What we can do when we specialise in a field, or work on a project is to get a better idea of the factors that may have a very high probability and or high impact on the outcome and then proceed.
Ceteris Paribas (everything else being equal), the success of one person from a pool of equally capable individual, is just plain luck. So when we improve our skill and knowledge, we improve the probability for a favourable outcome; almost like loading a dice.
On the reverse, when we lose in spite of the excellent preparation we have made or the skills we posses, it could be just being plain unlucky.
The religious minded will ascribe this as the wish of god or fate.
I am not questioning the existence of god, but reminding that even god would want us to be prepared and to exercise our choice (“It is for me to choose”) and not put the blame on him!
We can’t do anything about the genes we are born with or the environment we are born into. But, we can try to improve the probability of successful outcomes by enhancing our expertise, network and resources.
“Luck Favours the Prepared” Louis Pasteur
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